Ambrose Evans-Pritchard continues to warn about hyperinflation in Japan
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard hasn't given up his claim. He continues to argue Japan will lead the world into a global fiasco ... or something like that. Let me review some of his points, A global fiasco is brewing in Japan:
I have felt rather lonely after suggesting in my New Year Predictions that Japan is dangerously close to blowing up on its sovereign debts, with consequences that will be felt across the world.
Well, he shouldn't, there are certainly others predicting this. He continues:
My intended point — overly condensed — was that 2010 will prove to be the year that Japan flips from deflation to something very different: the beginnings of debt monetization by a terrified central bank that will ultimately spin out of control, perhaps crossing into hyperinflation by the middle of the decade.
The central bank has to buy up debt that the government has to issue. Note that nearly all government debt in Japan is held by a very conservative older generation who put their money in savings accounts at the post office. So what is it that will suddenly lead these people to panic? What are they going to do if they do panic? Take their paper money out and put it under the futon? Buy gold?
I mean, Mr. Evans-Pritchard could be right, but as someone who has lived in Japan for 15 years and interacted with these people, and discussed money matters with them, it's very, very hard for me to see this happening. I do expect a crisis, only I expect it to happen in slow motion over several years (as the population ages and begins retiring en masse), and that's presuming there isn't some type of reform first. The massive government borrowing is definitely -- how should I say it -- evil. It's no good. But will there suddenly be a panic with everyone over 60 rushing to the post office to withdrawal their money ... nobody told me there'd be days like these ...
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