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Goldman Sachs top economist says yen to be in trouble!

06 Jan 2010
Posted by matt

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O'Neill says yen to take a beating this year, or at least something like that:

Instead, he said, it's Japan and the yen that investors should keep an eye on. Japan's problems are "much, much worse" than those of the U.K and the U.S. That's why he expects the yen to be the "big loser" among major currencies in 2010. No surprise, then, that one of his favorite personal trades this year is to buy the pound against the yen.

No details are offered in the article for this statement. However, he thinks good times are ahead for the American dollar because:

"The dollar's long-term problem has in the past been the current account deficit and that is now improving. It is very hard to be so bearish on the dollar," he said.
The current account deficit -- the broadest measure of trade and investment flows -- has fallen to 3% of gross domestic product from more than 6% in 2007 as the recession hit imports and the financial crisis caused consumers to ramp up their savings rate to 4%.
The only negative for the dollar now is the Fed's extremely easy monetary policy, Mr. O'Neill said. Should the economy continue to improve and the Fed moves earlier than Goldman expects, the dollar "would rise easily," he said.

I have no idea. I'm not optimistic about the dollar or the yen. However, I still think that Japan has much less debt overall, and owes much less to other countries in general. Not only this but Japan is still running a trade surplus, generally, and China has even overtaken America as the main destination for their goods. Japan still produces things. So comparatively speaking Japan seems in a better position. But then again, what do I know?

Perhaps Jim O'Neill is optimistic about the dollar because it's his job to be. Star here for some opinion on that.

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