Will Japan face hyperinflation?
Here's another prediction on Japan, this time from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting. This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1pc from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time. Every auction of JGBs will be a news event as the public debt punches above 225pc of GDP. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii will become as familiar as a rock star. Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China's yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbour race to the bottom. By then China too will be in a quandary. Wild credit growth can mask the weakness of its mercantilist export model for a while, but only at the price of an asset bubble. Beijing must hit the brakes this year, or store up serious trouble. It will make as big a hash of this as Western central banks did in 2007-2008.
This is an interesting analysis to say the least. I think there's some truth here, but only an element of it. Japan's private debt is not nearly as serious as its public debt, is it? And Japan's external debt is relatively low compared to other developed countries, right? Also, so far, Japanese savers have been fairly placid and undemanding, I would guess. I suppose I need to look into this.
What are recent trends in Japanese savings habits? Are they away from standard savings accounts and CDs (like at the post office) and into more competitive types of investments? If so, that might lend some credence to the above. It would take a mass movement away from standards savings to really rile the Japanese government bond market, wouldn't it? Is that a possibility in Japan? It's hard to imagine hyperinflation in Japan so long as government debt is mostly owed domestically. I can certainly see the potential for mild inflation. (Basically the government cheating it's own investors slowly over time by printing money, something that happens even during deflation, when the deflation is less than what it would have been.* )
Again, though with the population aging, the trend will have to go from savings towards consumption as an older population retires and begins to draw upon their pensions. So how will Japan deal with its growing debt then?
*Actually, if inflation is money creation, Japan has been facing more inflation over recent years than deflation. Even if prices are going down, they'd go down more without money creation. It used to be that inflation was associated with money creation not increases in prices.
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